Mistakes to avoid when trading with 

systems

Robert Carver

London Traders Expo, 11

th

 December 2015

 

 

Mistake #1: Overfitting

Mistake #2: Too much risk

Mistake #3: Trading too often

Mistake #4: Meddling

 

 

Mistake #1: Overfitting

Mistake #2: Too much risk

Mistake #3: Trading too often

Mistake #4: Meddling

 

 

Mistake #1: Overfitting

Mistake #2: Too much risk

Mistake #3: Trading too often

Mistake #4: Meddling

 

 

Mistake #1: Overfitting

Mistake #2: Too much risk

Mistake #3: Trading too often

Mistake #4: Meddling

 

 

Mistake #1: Over fitting

 

 

Mistake #1: Over fitting

 

 

Mistake #1: Over fitting

 

 

Antidotes to overfitting

Avoid implicit overfitting (data snooping)

Fit on an out of sample basis – expanding window is 
best

Avoid explicit overfitting – use robust techniques

 

 

Fit out of sample with expanding 

window